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FIPS: 04013•Rank #82 National•Rank #2 in AZ
Maricopa County, AZ
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
54.9/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Maricopa County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Maricopa County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (54.9/100) based on $5,920 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +21.3% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.11% (+11 bps) indicates an estimated +$970/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $465,000Median Income: $82,000Effective Tax: 0.6%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$5,920
7.2% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+21.3%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+11 bps
Effective Rate: 0.6% → 0.8%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$970/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Maricopa County, AZ.
$465,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$2,976
@ 0.64% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$3,946
@ 0.75% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$970/yr
+$81/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+11 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+6 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+4 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$412/yr
+$64,379 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Maricopa County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mesa Unified School District | ISD | $620.0M | $9,800 | 0.420% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
48
0.6% eff.
2023
51
0.6% eff.
2024
52
0.6% eff.
2025
54
0.6% eff.
2026
54.9
0.6% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Proposition 117 limits annual growth in Limited Property Value (LPV) to 5%, creating smooth multi-year reassessment drift.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations