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FIPS: 04019•Rank #88 National•Rank #3 in AZ
Pima County, AZ
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
52.3/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Pima County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Pima County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (52.3/100) based on $5,600 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +18% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.14% (+14 bps) indicates an estimated +$908/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $330,000Median Income: $65,000Effective Tax: 1.0%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$5,600
8.6% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+18.0%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+14 bps
Effective Rate: 1.0% → 1.1%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$908/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Pima County, AZ.
$330,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$3,234
@ 0.98% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$4,142
@ 1.12% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$908/yr
+$76/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+14 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+8 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+6 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$378/yr
+$38,610 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Pima County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucson Unified School District (TUSD) | ISD | $580.0M | $14,200 | 0.495% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
46
0.9% eff.
2023
48
0.9% eff.
2024
50
1.0% eff.
2025
51
1.0% eff.
2026
52.3
1.0% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Tucson area school districts carry higher secondary tax rates for debt service amortization.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations