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FIPS: 06013•Rank #70 National•Rank #7 in CA
Contra Costa County, CA
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
56.6/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Contra Costa County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Contra Costa County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (56.6/100) based on $8,200 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +23% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.1% (+10 bps) indicates an estimated +$2,009/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $860,000Median Income: $115,000Effective Tax: 0.8%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$8,200
7.1% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+23.0%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+10 bps
Effective Rate: 0.8% → 0.9%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$2,009/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Contra Costa County, CA.
$860,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$6,794
@ 0.79% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$8,803
@ 0.89% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$2,009/yr
+$167/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+10 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+5 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+5 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$1,016/yr
+$128,570 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Contra Costa County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mount Diablo Unified School District | ISD | $780.0M | $28,000 | 0.095% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
50
0.7% eff.
2023
52
0.8% eff.
2024
54
0.8% eff.
2025
55
0.8% eff.
2026
56.6
0.8% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Bay Area suburban corridor with multi-district school bond measures and BART transit debt assessments.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations