TaxDriftIndex
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FIPS: 06037•Rank #43 National•Rank #3 in CA

Los Angeles County, CA

Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit

Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
59.9/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Los Angeles County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026

Los Angeles County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (59.9/100) based on $7,800 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +21.2% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.1% (+10 bps) indicates an estimated +$1,792/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.

Median Home: $840,000Median Income: $83,400Effective Tax: 0.8%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$7,800
9.4% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+21.2%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+10 bps
Effective Rate: 0.8% → 0.9%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$1,792/yr
Estimated on median assessed home

Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator

Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Los Angeles County, CA.

$840,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$6,384
@ 0.76% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$8,176
@ 0.86% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$1,792/yr
+$149/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+10 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+4 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+5 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$880/yr
+$115,752 assessed base

Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations

Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Los Angeles County.

Entity NameEntity TypeOutstanding Bond DebtDebt / Student or CapAdopted Millage
Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD)ISD$11.4B$26,5000.142%

5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory

2022
53
0.7% eff.
2023
55
0.7% eff.
2024
57
0.7% eff.
2025
59
0.8% eff.
2026
59.9
0.8% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy

Prop 13 limits base rate to 1% + local voter-approved bonds; newly purchased properties reset to market value creating significant assessment disparity.

Data Provenance & Audit Citations
Los Angeles County, CA Property Tax Forecast & Municipal Risk Audit | TaxDrift Intelligence