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FIPS: 06059•Rank #77 National•Rank #1 in CA
Orange County, CA
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
55.4/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Orange County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Orange County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (55.4/100) based on $7,400 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +23% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +4.83% (+483 bps) indicates an estimated +$172,868/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $1.1MMedian Income: $106,000Effective Tax: 0.7%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$7,400
7.0% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+23.0%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+483 bps
Effective Rate: 0.7% → 5.6%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$172,868/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Orange County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irvine Unified School District | ISD | $680.0M | $19,000 | 8.500% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
49
0.7% eff.
2023
51
0.7% eff.
2024
53
0.7% eff.
2025
54
0.7% eff.
2026
55.4
0.7% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Suburban master-planned communities in Irvine and Mission Viejo carry supplemental Mello-Roos CFD special taxes.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations