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FIPS: 06067•Rank #46 National•Rank #5 in CA
Sacramento County, CA
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
58.9/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Sacramento County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Sacramento County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (58.9/100) based on $7,100 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +21% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.12% (+12 bps) indicates an estimated +$1,299/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $520,000Median Income: $79,000Effective Tax: 0.8%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$7,100
9.0% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+21.0%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+12 bps
Effective Rate: 0.8% → 0.9%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$1,299/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Sacramento County, CA.
$520,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$4,264
@ 0.82% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$5,563
@ 0.94% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$1,299/yr
+$108/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+12 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+7 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+6 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$582/yr
+$70,980 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Sacramento County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento City Unified School District | ISD | $980.0M | $25,000 | 0.110% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
52
0.8% eff.
2023
54
0.8% eff.
2024
56
0.8% eff.
2025
58
0.8% eff.
2026
58.9
0.8% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Regional transit and flood control assessments add ongoing voter-approved levies across the Sacramento basin.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations