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FIPS: 06071•Rank #61 National•Rank #6 in CA
San Bernardino County, CA
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
57.9/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
San Bernardino County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
San Bernardino County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (57.9/100) based on $6,900 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +19.8% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.13% (+13 bps) indicates an estimated +$1,273/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $495,000Median Income: $74,000Effective Tax: 0.9%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$6,900
9.3% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+19.8%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+13 bps
Effective Rate: 0.9% → 1.0%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$1,273/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in San Bernardino County, CA.
$495,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$4,406
@ 0.89% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$5,679
@ 1.02% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$1,273/yr
+$106/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+13 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+7 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+6 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$567/yr
+$63,707 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within San Bernardino County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaffey Joint Union High School District | ISD | $720.0M | $31,000 | 0.078% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
51
0.8% eff.
2023
53
0.8% eff.
2024
55
0.9% eff.
2025
57
0.9% eff.
2026
57.9
0.9% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Western county urban corridor school districts hold significant capital improvement bond debts.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations