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FIPS: 06073•Rank #73 National•Rank #8 in CA
San Diego County, CA
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
56.2/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
San Diego County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
San Diego County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (56.2/100) based on $6,900 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +22.8% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.09% (+9 bps) indicates an estimated +$1,879/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $860,000Median Income: $96,000Effective Tax: 0.8%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$6,900
7.2% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+22.8%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+9 bps
Effective Rate: 0.8% → 0.9%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$1,879/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in San Diego County, CA.
$860,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$6,622
@ 0.77% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$8,501
@ 0.86% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$1,879/yr
+$157/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+9 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+4 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+5 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$981/yr
+$127,452 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within San Diego County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Unified School District | ISD | $4.1B | $42,000 | 0.138% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
49
0.7% eff.
2023
52
0.7% eff.
2024
53
0.8% eff.
2025
55
0.8% eff.
2026
56.2
0.8% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
TransNet and regional water authority bond debt service added to 1% baseline property tax.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations