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FIPS: 06075•Rank #39 National•Rank #2 in CA
San Francisco County, CA
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
60.4/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
San Francisco County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
San Francisco County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (60.4/100) based on $9,600 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +26% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.09% (+9 bps) indicates an estimated +$2,746/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $1.3MMedian Income: $136,000Effective Tax: 0.7%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$9,600
7.1% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+26.0%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+9 bps
Effective Rate: 0.7% → 0.8%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$2,746/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in San Francisco County, CA.
$1.3M
$0
Current Annual Tax
$8,500
@ 0.68% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$11,246
@ 0.77% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$2,746/yr
+$229/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+9 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+4 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+5 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$1,437/yr
+$211,250 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within San Francisco County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Unified School District | ISD | $1.6B | $34,000 | 0.098% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
53
0.6% eff.
2023
56
0.7% eff.
2024
57
0.7% eff.
2025
59
0.7% eff.
2026
60.4
0.7% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Consolidated city-county with significant general obligation debt for affordable housing, parks, and SFUSD facilities.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations