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FIPS: 06085•Rank #76 National•Rank #1 in CA
Santa Clara County, CA
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
55.4/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Santa Clara County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Santa Clara County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (55.4/100) based on $8,600 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +25% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +5.33% (+533 bps) indicates an estimated +$264,145/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $1.4MMedian Income: $153,000Effective Tax: 0.7%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$8,600
5.6% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+25.0%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+533 bps
Effective Rate: 0.7% → 6.1%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$264,145/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Santa Clara County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Unified School District | ISD | $850.0M | $31,000 | 12.000% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
49
0.7% eff.
2023
51
0.7% eff.
2024
53
0.7% eff.
2025
54
0.7% eff.
2026
55.4
0.7% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Silicon Valley school districts and transit authorities pass large general obligation bond measures with high voter approval.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations