Back to Colorado Overview
FIPS: 08005•Rank #42 National•Rank #2 in CO
Arapahoe County, CO
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
60.2/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Arapahoe County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Arapahoe County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (60.2/100) based on $7,400 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +24% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.11% (+11 bps) indicates an estimated +$1,210/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $540,000Median Income: $92,000Effective Tax: 0.6%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$7,400
8.0% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+24.0%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+11 bps
Effective Rate: 0.6% → 0.7%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$1,210/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Arapahoe County, CO.
$540,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$3,348
@ 0.62% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$4,558
@ 0.73% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$1,210/yr
+$101/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+11 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+7 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+4 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$522/yr
+$84,240 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Arapahoe County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherry Creek School District 5 | ISD | $1.4B | $25,500 | 0.510% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
53
0.6% eff.
2023
55
0.6% eff.
2024
57
0.6% eff.
2025
59
0.6% eff.
2026
60.2
0.6% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Cherry Creek School District capital bond debt and South Metro Fire Rescue millage levies drive local tax rates.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations