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FIPS: 12021•Rank #60 National•Rank #10 in FL
Collier County, FL
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
57.9/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Collier County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Collier County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (57.9/100) based on $5,800 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +25.8% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.1% (+10 bps) indicates an estimated +$1,674/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $620,000Median Income: $84,000Effective Tax: 0.9%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$5,800
6.9% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+25.8%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+10 bps
Effective Rate: 0.9% → 1.0%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$1,674/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Collier County, FL.
$620,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$5,456
@ 0.88% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$7,130
@ 0.98% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$1,674/yr
+$140/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+10 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+4 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+6 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$915/yr
+$103,974 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Collier County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collier County Public Schools | ISD | $320.0M | $6,800 | 0.490% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
51
0.8% eff.
2023
53
0.8% eff.
2024
55
0.9% eff.
2025
57
0.9% eff.
2026
57.9
0.9% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Naples luxury market assessment windfalls keep nominal millage rates among the lowest in Florida.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations