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FIPS: 12031•Rank #69 National•Rank #1 in FL
Duval County, FL
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
56.8/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Duval County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Duval County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (56.8/100) based on $5,800 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +20% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.16% (+16 bps) indicates an estimated +$973/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $310,000Median Income: $65,000Effective Tax: 1.0%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$5,800
8.9% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+20.0%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+16 bps
Effective Rate: 1.0% → 1.2%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$973/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Duval County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duval County Public Schools | ISD | $1.1B | $8,600 | 58.500% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
50
1.0% eff.
2023
52
1.0% eff.
2024
54
1.0% eff.
2025
56
1.0% eff.
2026
56.8
1.0% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Consolidated City of Jacksonville and Duval County government structure with dedicated half-cent school capital sales surtax.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations