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FIPS: 12057•Rank #30 National•Rank #6 in FL
Hillsborough County, FL
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
62.8/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Hillsborough County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Hillsborough County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (62.8/100) based on $6,400 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +24.1% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.16% (+16 bps) indicates an estimated +$1,389/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $390,000Median Income: $72,000Effective Tax: 1.1%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$6,400
8.9% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+24.1%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+16 bps
Effective Rate: 1.1% → 1.3%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$1,389/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Hillsborough County, FL.
$390,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$4,290
@ 1.10% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$5,679
@ 1.26% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$1,389/yr
+$116/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+16 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+8 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+8 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$672/yr
+$61,094 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Hillsborough County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hillsborough County Public Schools | ISD | $1.4B | $6,400 | 0.612% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
55
1.0% eff.
2023
58
1.1% eff.
2024
60
1.1% eff.
2025
62
1.1% eff.
2026
62.8
1.1% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Tampa metropolitan growth necessitates ongoing transit and school facility bond financing.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations