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FIPS: 12071•Rank #18 National•Rank #3 in FL
Lee County, FL
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
64.8/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Lee County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Lee County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (64.8/100) based on $6,400 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +25% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.16% (+16 bps) indicates an estimated +$1,349/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $380,000Median Income: $69,000Effective Tax: 1.1%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$6,400
9.3% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+25.0%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+16 bps
Effective Rate: 1.1% → 1.2%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$1,349/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Lee County, FL.
$380,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$3,990
@ 1.05% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$5,339
@ 1.21% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$1,349/yr
+$112/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+16 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+8 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+8 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$648/yr
+$61,750 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Lee County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| School District of Lee County | ISD | $980.0M | $10,200 | 0.605% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
57
1.0% eff.
2023
60
1.0% eff.
2024
62
1.0% eff.
2025
64
1.0% eff.
2026
64.8
1.1% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Post-hurricane rebuilding and coastal barrier island infrastructure repairs drive municipal utility and school capital levies.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations