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FIPS: 12086•Rank #5 National•Rank #1 in FL
Miami-Dade County, FL
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
High Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
77.8/ 100
High Drift Risk
Miami-Dade County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Miami-Dade County carries a High Tax Drift Score (77.8/100) based on $8,100 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +28% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.16% (+16 bps) indicates an estimated +$1,828/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $490,000Median Income: $61,000Effective Tax: 1.0%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$8,100
13.3% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+28.0%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+16 bps
Effective Rate: 1.0% → 1.2%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$1,828/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Miami-Dade County, FL.
$490,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$4,998
@ 1.02% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$6,826
@ 1.18% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$1,828/yr
+$152/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+16 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+8 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+8 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$910/yr
+$89,180 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Miami-Dade County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami-Dade County Public Schools | ISD | $3.2B | $9,800 | 0.658% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
68
1.0% eff.
2023
72
1.0% eff.
2024
74
1.0% eff.
2025
76
1.0% eff.
2026
77.8
1.0% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Climate resilience bonds, water management infrastructure, and rapid condo assessment adjustments drive carrying cost drift.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations