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FIPS: 12095•Rank #13 National•Rank #2 in FL
Orange County, FL
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
66.6/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Orange County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Orange County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (66.6/100) based on $6,800 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +26.5% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.16% (+16 bps) indicates an estimated +$1,528/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $410,000Median Income: $74,200Effective Tax: 1.1%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$6,800
9.2% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+26.5%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+16 bps
Effective Rate: 1.1% → 1.2%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$1,528/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Orange County, FL.
$410,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$4,305
@ 1.05% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$5,833
@ 1.21% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$1,528/yr
+$127/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+16 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+8 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+8 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$742/yr
+$70,623 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Orange County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orange County Public Schools (OCPS) | ISD | $1.9B | $8,900 | 0.615% |
City of Orlando | City | $950.0M | $3,060 | 0.665% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
59
1.0% eff.
2023
61
1.0% eff.
2024
63
1.0% eff.
2025
65
1.0% eff.
2026
66.6
1.1% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Save Our Homes restricts residential homestead increases to 3% max, shifting tax drift burden onto non-homestead residential rentals and commercial properties.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations