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FIPS: 12115•Rank #56 National•Rank #9 in FL
Sarasota County, FL
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
58.2/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Sarasota County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Sarasota County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (58.2/100) based on $6,100 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +23.5% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.13% (+13 bps) indicates an estimated +$1,461/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $470,000Median Income: $78,000Effective Tax: 1.0%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$6,100
7.8% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+23.5%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+13 bps
Effective Rate: 1.0% → 1.2%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$1,461/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Sarasota County, FL.
$470,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$4,888
@ 1.04% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$6,349
@ 1.17% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$1,461/yr
+$122/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+13 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+6 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+7 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$747/yr
+$71,793 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Sarasota County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarasota County Schools | ISD | $450.0M | $10,100 | 0.615% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
51
1.0% eff.
2023
54
1.0% eff.
2024
55
1.0% eff.
2025
57
1.0% eff.
2026
58.2
1.0% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Voter-approved 1-mill school referendum renewed consistently since 2002 to maintain high per-student funding levels.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations