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FIPS: 13135•Rank #68 National•Rank #3 in GA
Gwinnett County, GA
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
57/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Gwinnett County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Gwinnett County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (57/100) based on $6,800 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +21% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.16% (+16 bps) indicates an estimated +$1,281/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $380,000Median Income: $82,000Effective Tax: 1.1%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$6,800
8.3% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+21.0%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+16 bps
Effective Rate: 1.1% → 1.3%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$1,281/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Gwinnett County, GA.
$380,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$4,256
@ 1.12% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$5,537
@ 1.28% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$1,281/yr
+$107/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+16 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+9 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+8 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$581/yr
+$51,870 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Gwinnett County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gwinnett County Public Schools | ISD | $2.1B | $11,500 | 0.980% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
50
1.1% eff.
2023
52
1.1% eff.
2024
54
1.1% eff.
2025
56
1.1% eff.
2026
57
1.1% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Gwinnett County Public Schools (largest district in GA) issues substantial capital debt for high school clusters.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations