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FIPS: 17031•Rank #1 National•Rank #1 in IL
Cook County, IL
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Severe Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
86.4/ 100
Severe Drift Risk
Cook County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Cook County carries a Severe Tax Drift Score (86.4/100) based on $12,400 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +31.4% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.41% (+41 bps) indicates an estimated +$3,053/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $310,000Median Income: $78,500Effective Tax: 2.4%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$12,400
15.8% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+31.4%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+41 bps
Effective Rate: 2.4% → 2.8%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$3,053/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Cook County, IL.
$310,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$7,378
@ 2.38% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$10,431
@ 2.79% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$3,053/yr
+$254/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+41 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+19 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+22 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$1,506/yr
+$63,271 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Cook County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Public Schools (District 299) | ISD | $8.9B | $27,500 | 1.120% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
76
2.2% eff.
2023
79
2.3% eff.
2024
82
2.3% eff.
2025
85
2.4% eff.
2026
86.4
2.4% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Home-rule status allows City of Chicago and Cook County to supersede PTELL property tax extension caps.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations