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FIPS: 37063•Rank #17 National•Rank #1 in NC
Durham County, NC
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
65.2/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Durham County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Durham County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (65.2/100) based on $7,600 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +24% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.17% (+17 bps) indicates an estimated +$1,441/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $395,000Median Income: $77,000Effective Tax: 1.1%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$7,600
9.9% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+24.0%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+17 bps
Effective Rate: 1.1% → 1.3%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$1,441/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Durham County, NC.
$395,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$4,266
@ 1.08% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$5,707
@ 1.25% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$1,441/yr
+$120/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+17 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+9 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+8 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$665/yr
+$61,620 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Durham County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durham Public Schools | ISD | $850.0M | $26,500 | 0.540% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
57
1.0% eff.
2023
60
1.0% eff.
2024
62
1.1% eff.
2025
64
1.1% eff.
2026
65.2
1.1% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Research Triangle biotech hub expansion drives city and county capital infrastructure millage requirements.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations