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FIPS: 37067•Rank #79 National•Rank #5 in NC
Forsyth County, NC
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
55.2/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Forsyth County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Forsyth County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (55.2/100) based on $5,600 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +20% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.16% (+16 bps) indicates an estimated +$853/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $280,000Median Income: $65,000Effective Tax: 1.0%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$5,600
8.6% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+20.0%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+16 bps
Effective Rate: 1.0% → 1.1%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$853/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Forsyth County, NC.
$280,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$2,744
@ 0.98% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$3,597
@ 1.14% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$853/yr
+$71/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+16 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+10 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+6 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$357/yr
+$36,400 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Forsyth County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winston-Salem/Forsyth County Schools | ISD | $740.0M | $14,200 | 0.490% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
49
0.9% eff.
2023
51
0.9% eff.
2024
52
1.0% eff.
2025
54
1.0% eff.
2026
55.2
1.0% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Winston-Salem quadrennial reappraisals reset tax base with revenue-neutral rate adjustment calculations.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations