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FIPS: 37183•Rank #52 National•Rank #1 in NC
Wake County, NC
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
58.7/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Wake County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Wake County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (58.7/100) based on $7,100 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +24.2% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +6.27% (+627 bps) indicates an estimated +$99,154/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $470,000Median Income: $95,000Effective Tax: 0.9%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$7,100
7.5% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+24.2%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+627 bps
Effective Rate: 0.9% → 7.1%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$99,154/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Wake County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wake County Public School System | ISD | $2.6B | $16,200 | 44.000% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
52
0.8% eff.
2023
54
0.8% eff.
2024
56
0.9% eff.
2025
58
0.9% eff.
2026
58.7
0.9% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Raleigh and Research Triangle school enrollment expansion drives frequent school bond referendums.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations