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FIPS: 36029•Rank #41 National•Rank #7 in NY
Erie County, NY
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
60.2/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Erie County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Erie County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (60.2/100) based on $7,400 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +18% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.31% (+31 bps) indicates an estimated +$1,531/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $240,000Median Income: $65,000Effective Tax: 2.5%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$7,400
11.4% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+18.0%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+31 bps
Effective Rate: 2.5% → 2.8%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$1,531/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Erie County, NY.
$240,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$6,000
@ 2.50% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$7,531
@ 2.81% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$1,531/yr
+$128/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+31 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+15 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+16 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$702/yr
+$28,080 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Erie County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo City School District | ISD | $680.0M | $21,500 | 1.450% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
53
2.4% eff.
2023
55
2.4% eff.
2024
57
2.5% eff.
2025
59
2.5% eff.
2026
60.2
2.5% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Buffalo metropolitan area with multiple town assessing units and equalized school district tax rates.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations