Back to New York Overview
FIPS: 36029•Rank #41 National•Rank #1 in NY
Erie County, NY
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
60.2/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Erie County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Erie County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (60.2/100) based on $7,400 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +18% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.31% (+31 bps) indicates an estimated +$1,531/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $240,000Median Income: $65,000Effective Tax: 2.5%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$7,400
11.4% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+18.0%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+31 bps
Effective Rate: 2.5% → 2.8%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$1,531/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Erie County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo City School District | ISD | $680.0M | $21,500 | 145.000% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
53
2.4% eff.
2023
55
2.4% eff.
2024
57
2.5% eff.
2025
59
2.5% eff.
2026
60.2
2.5% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Buffalo metropolitan area with multiple town assessing units and equalized school district tax rates.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations