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FIPS: 36061•Rank #3 National•Rank #1 in NY
New York County, NY
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
High Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
81.3/ 100
High Drift Risk
New York County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
New York County carries a High Tax Drift Score (81.3/100) based on $13,500 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +28.5% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.13% (+13 bps) indicates an estimated +$3,617/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $1.1MMedian Income: $93,000Effective Tax: 0.9%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$13,500
14.5% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+28.5%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+13 bps
Effective Rate: 0.9% → 1.0%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$3,617/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in New York County, NY.
$1.1M
$0
Current Annual Tax
$10,120
@ 0.88% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$13,737
@ 1.01% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$3,617/yr
+$301/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+13 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+6 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+7 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$1,875/yr
+$213,038 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within New York County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York City Public Schools (District 1-6) | ISD | $24.5B | $26,000 | 0.450% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
72
0.8% eff.
2023
75
0.8% eff.
2024
77
0.9% eff.
2025
80
0.9% eff.
2026
81.3
0.9% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Manhattan commercial and residential Class 2 tax class assessment caps phase in increases over 5 years.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations