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FIPS: 36103•Rank #65 National•Rank #1 in NY
Suffolk County, NY
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
57.5/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Suffolk County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Suffolk County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (57.5/100) based on $8,900 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +22% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.22% (+22 bps) indicates an estimated +$3,306/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $580,000Median Income: $111,000Effective Tax: 2.2%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$8,900
8.0% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+22.0%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+22 bps
Effective Rate: 2.2% → 2.4%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$3,306/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Suffolk County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentwood Union Free School District | ISD | $180.0M | $9,400 | 128.000% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
51
2.1% eff.
2023
53
2.1% eff.
2024
55
2.2% eff.
2025
56
2.2% eff.
2026
57.5
2.2% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Suburban Long Island infrastructure and school district pension debt create steady upward carrying pressure.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations