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FIPS: 47037•Rank #11 National•Rank #1 in TN
Davidson County, TN
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
69.9/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Davidson County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Davidson County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (69.9/100) based on $7,900 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +26% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +5.04% (+504 bps) indicates an estimated +$76,465/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $440,000Median Income: $72,000Effective Tax: 0.7%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$7,900
11.0% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+26.0%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+504 bps
Effective Rate: 0.7% → 5.7%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$76,465/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Davidson County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metro Nashville Public Schools | ISD | $1.6B | $19,500 | 42.000% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
62
0.6% eff.
2023
64
0.7% eff.
2024
66
0.7% eff.
2025
69
0.7% eff.
2026
69.9
0.7% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Nashville certified tax rate reappraisals occur quadrennially with substantial post-reappraisal budget adjustments.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations