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FIPS: 47157•Rank #33 National•Rank #1 in TN
Shelby County, TN
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
61.1/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Shelby County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Shelby County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (61.1/100) based on $6,800 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +18% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.23% (+23 bps) indicates an estimated +$931/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $225,000Median Income: $57,000Effective Tax: 1.4%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$6,800
11.9% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+18.0%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+23 bps
Effective Rate: 1.4% → 1.6%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$931/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Shelby County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis-Shelby County Schools | ISD | $1.3B | $11,500 | 58.000% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
54
1.3% eff.
2023
56
1.3% eff.
2024
58
1.3% eff.
2025
60
1.3% eff.
2026
61.1
1.4% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Memphis-Shelby County Schools and municipal capital debt require elevated combined city-county tax rates.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations