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FIPS: 48029•Rank #59 National•Rank #12 in TX
Bexar County, TX
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
57.9/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Bexar County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Bexar County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (57.9/100) based on $7,100 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +17.5% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.26% (+26 bps) indicates an estimated +$1,478/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $275,000Median Income: $65,400Effective Tax: 2.1%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$7,100
10.9% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+17.5%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+26 bps
Effective Rate: 2.1% → 2.4%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$1,478/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Bexar County, TX.
$275,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$5,912
@ 2.15% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$7,390
@ 2.41% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$1,478/yr
+$123/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+26 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+12 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+14 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$673/yr
+$31,281 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Bexar County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northside Independent School District | ISD | $2.9B | $28,400 | 1.050% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
51
2.0% eff.
2023
53
2.1% eff.
2024
55
2.1% eff.
2025
57
2.1% eff.
2026
57.9
2.1% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
San Antonio metro area with 15+ independent school districts creating fragmented tax drift across county lines.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations