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FIPS: 48039•Rank #57 National•Rank #1 in TX
Brazoria County, TX
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
58/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Brazoria County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Brazoria County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (58/100) based on $7,800 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +20.4% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.27% (+27 bps) indicates an estimated +$1,863/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $310,000Median Income: $88,000Effective Tax: 2.2%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$7,800
8.9% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+20.4%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+27 bps
Effective Rate: 2.2% → 2.5%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$1,863/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Brazoria County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pearland Independent School District | ISD | $720.0M | $34,000 | 101.000% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
51
2.1% eff.
2023
53
2.1% eff.
2024
55
2.2% eff.
2025
57
2.2% eff.
2026
58
2.2% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Pearland and Alvin suburban growth drives frequent capital authorizations alongside industrial port debt.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations