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FIPS: 48085•Rank #44 National•Rank #9 in TX
Collin County, TX
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
59.4/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Collin County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Collin County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (59.4/100) based on $9,100 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +22.1% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.23% (+23 bps) indicates an estimated +$2,887/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $530,000Median Income: $113,000Effective Tax: 1.9%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$9,100
8.1% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+22.1%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+23 bps
Effective Rate: 1.9% → 2.2%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$2,887/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Collin County, TX.
$530,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$10,335
@ 1.95% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$13,222
@ 2.18% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$2,887/yr
+$241/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+23 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+8 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+15 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$1,485/yr
+$76,135 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Collin County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frisco Independent School District | ISD | $2.8B | $41,800 | 1.027% |
| Plano ISD | ISD | $1.4B | $28,000 | 0.940% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
52
1.8% eff.
2023
55
1.9% eff.
2024
56
1.9% eff.
2025
58
1.9% eff.
2026
59.4
1.9% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Rapid suburban expansion in Frisco, McKinney, and Plano requires aggressive ISD and water infrastructure debt issuance.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations