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FIPS: 48121•Rank #35 National•Rank #6 in TX
Denton County, TX
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
60.9/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Denton County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Denton County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (60.9/100) based on $8,650 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +21.8% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.25% (+25 bps) indicates an estimated +$2,604/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $450,000Median Income: $98,000Effective Tax: 2.1%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$8,650
8.8% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+21.8%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+25 bps
Effective Rate: 2.1% → 2.3%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$2,604/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Denton County, TX.
$450,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$9,360
@ 2.08% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$11,964
@ 2.33% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$2,604/yr
+$217/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+25 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+9 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+16 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$1,326/yr
+$63,765 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Denton County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewisville Independent School District | ISD | $1.9B | $39,000 | 1.030% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
54
2.0% eff.
2023
56
2.0% eff.
2024
58
2.0% eff.
2025
60
2.1% eff.
2026
60.9
2.1% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
High-growth North Texas corridor with extensive Denton and Lewisville ISD capital bond burdens.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations