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FIPS: 48141•Rank #66 National•Rank #13 in TX
El Paso County, TX
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
57.3/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
El Paso County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
El Paso County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (57.3/100) based on $6,200 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +16.5% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.29% (+29 bps) indicates an estimated +$1,259/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $210,000Median Income: $53,000Effective Tax: 2.5%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$6,200
11.7% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+16.5%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+29 bps
Effective Rate: 2.5% → 2.8%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$1,259/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in El Paso County, TX.
$210,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$5,355
@ 2.55% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$6,614
@ 2.84% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$1,259/yr
+$105/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+29 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+14 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+15 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$574/yr
+$22,523 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within El Paso County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso Independent School District | ISD | $1.2B | $24,000 | 1.150% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
50
2.4% eff.
2023
53
2.5% eff.
2024
54
2.5% eff.
2025
56
2.5% eff.
2026
57.3
2.5% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
High nominal effective tax rate with lower median assessed home values balancing local civic budget needs.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations