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FIPS: 48167•Rank #53 National•Rank #10 in TX
Galveston County, TX
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
58.6/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Galveston County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Galveston County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (58.6/100) based on $7,400 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +19.8% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.25% (+25 bps) indicates an estimated +$1,782/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $320,000Median Income: $78,000Effective Tax: 2.1%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$7,400
9.5% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+19.8%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+25 bps
Effective Rate: 2.1% → 2.4%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$1,782/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Galveston County, TX.
$320,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$6,720
@ 2.10% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$8,502
@ 2.35% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$1,782/yr
+$149/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+25 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+11 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+14 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$865/yr
+$41,184 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Galveston County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clear Creek ISD | ISD | $1.4B | $35,000 | 0.970% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
52
2.0% eff.
2023
54
2.0% eff.
2024
56
2.1% eff.
2025
57
2.1% eff.
2026
58.6
2.1% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Coastal infrastructure, drainage bonds, and petrochemical corridor school districts shape county millages.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations