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FIPS: 48201•Rank #37 National•Rank #7 in TX
Harris County, TX
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
60.8/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Harris County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Harris County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (60.8/100) based on $7,650 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +18.2% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.27% (+27 bps) indicates an estimated +$1,570/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $285,000Median Income: $67,200Effective Tax: 2.1%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$7,650
11.4% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+18.2%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+27 bps
Effective Rate: 2.1% → 2.4%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$1,570/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Harris County, TX.
$285,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$6,042
@ 2.12% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$7,612
@ 2.39% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$1,570/yr
+$131/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+27 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+13 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+14 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$715/yr
+$33,716 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Harris County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Independent School District | ISD | $3.1B | $16,800 | 0.985% |
City of Houston | City | $3.8B | $1,650 | 0.519% |
Harris County Flood Control District | Special | $1.9B | $407 | 0.038% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
54
2.0% eff.
2023
56
2.0% eff.
2024
58
2.1% eff.
2025
60
2.1% eff.
2026
60.8
2.1% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
City of Houston operates under a municipal revenue cap Charter Amendment; hospital and flood control millages have widened.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations