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FIPS: 48209•Rank #8 National•Rank #1 in TX
Hays County, TX
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
High Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
72.3/ 100
High Drift Risk
Hays County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Hays County carries a High Tax Drift Score (72.3/100) based on $8,950 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +25.2% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.28% (+28 bps) indicates an estimated +$2,546/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $390,000Median Income: $79,000Effective Tax: 2.0%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$8,950
11.3% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+25.2%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+28 bps
Effective Rate: 2.0% → 2.3%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$2,546/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Hays County, TX.
$390,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$7,878
@ 2.02% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$10,424
@ 2.30% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$2,546/yr
+$212/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+28 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+11 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+17 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$1,290/yr
+$63,882 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Hays County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hays Consolidated Independent School District | ISD | $1.1B | $52,000 | 1.090% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
64
1.9% eff.
2023
67
1.9% eff.
2024
69
2.0% eff.
2025
71
2.0% eff.
2026
72.3
2.0% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
One of the fastest-growing counties in the US; San Marcos and Hays CISD capital bonds outpace baseline tax receipts.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations