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FIPS: 48339•Rank #40 National•Rank #8 in TX
Montgomery County, TX
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
60.3/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Montgomery County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Montgomery County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (60.3/100) based on $8,400 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +21% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.26% (+26 bps) indicates an estimated +$2,166/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $380,000Median Income: $92,000Effective Tax: 2.0%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$8,400
9.1% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+21.0%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+26 bps
Effective Rate: 2.0% → 2.3%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$2,166/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Montgomery County, TX.
$380,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$7,790
@ 2.05% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$9,956
@ 2.31% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$2,166/yr
+$181/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+26 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+11 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+15 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$1,063/yr
+$51,870 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Montgomery County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conroe Independent School District | ISD | $2.7B | $38,000 | 1.040% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
53
1.9% eff.
2023
55
2.0% eff.
2024
57
2.0% eff.
2025
59
2.0% eff.
2026
60.3
2.0% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
The Woodlands and Conroe corridors fund aggressive road expansions and Conroe ISD multi-campus bond authorizations.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations