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FIPS: 48439•Rank #71 National•Rank #14 in TX
Tarrant County, TX
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
56.5/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Tarrant County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Tarrant County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (56.5/100) based on $7,400 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +18.8% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.25% (+25 bps) indicates an estimated +$1,824/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $340,000Median Income: $78,200Effective Tax: 2.1%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$7,400
9.5% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+18.8%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+25 bps
Effective Rate: 2.1% → 2.4%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$1,824/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Tarrant County, TX.
$340,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$7,276
@ 2.14% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$9,100
@ 2.39% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$1,824/yr
+$152/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+25 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+10 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+14 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$889/yr
+$41,548 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Tarrant County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Worth Independent School District | ISD | $1.8B | $24,300 | 1.062% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
50
2.0% eff.
2023
52
2.0% eff.
2024
54
2.1% eff.
2025
55
2.1% eff.
2026
56.5
2.1% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Fort Worth and Arlington growth corridors balance road bonds and municipal hospital system capital allocations.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations