Back to Texas Overview
FIPS: 48453•Rank #10 National•Rank #2 in TX
Travis County, TX
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
High Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
70.4/ 100
High Drift Risk
Travis County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Travis County carries a High Tax Drift Score (70.4/100) based on $9,840 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +24.8% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.24% (+24 bps) indicates an estimated +$3,129/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $540,000Median Income: $92,500Effective Tax: 1.9%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$9,840
10.6% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+24.8%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+24 bps
Effective Rate: 1.9% → 2.1%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$3,129/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Travis County, TX.
$540,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$9,990
@ 1.85% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$13,119
@ 2.09% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$3,129/yr
+$261/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+24 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+9 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+15 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$1,610/yr
+$87,048 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Travis County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Independent School District | ISD | $2.4B | $32,800 | 0.895% |
City of Austin | City | $1.9B | $1,910 | 0.445% |
Travis County Administration | County | $980.0M | $738 | 0.304% |
Central Health District | Hospital | $120.0M | $90 | 0.108% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
62
1.7% eff.
2023
65
1.8% eff.
2024
67
1.8% eff.
2025
69
1.8% eff.
2026
70.4
1.9% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Subject to Texas SB 2 statutory 3.5% voter-approval cap; voter-approved I&S bond debt millage passes through without statutory constraint.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations