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FIPS: 49049•Rank #49 National•Rank #1 in UT
Utah County, UT
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
58.9/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Utah County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Utah County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (58.9/100) based on $6,100 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +25% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.1% (+10 bps) indicates an estimated +$1,034/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $510,000Median Income: $86,000Effective Tax: 0.6%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$6,100
7.1% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+25.0%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+10 bps
Effective Rate: 0.6% → 0.7%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$1,034/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Utah County, UT.
$510,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$2,805
@ 0.55% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$3,839
@ 0.65% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$1,034/yr
+$86/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+10 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+6 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+4 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$456/yr
+$82,875 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Utah County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alpine School District | ISD | $1.1B | $13,500 | 0.420% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
52
0.5% eff.
2023
54
0.5% eff.
2024
56
0.5% eff.
2025
58
0.5% eff.
2026
58.9
0.6% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Silicon Slopes tech corridor in Lehi and Provo drives extensive school district and municipal bond authorizations.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations