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FIPS: 51059•Rank #90 National•Rank #3 in VA
Fairfax County, VA
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Moderate Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
47.7/ 100
Moderate Drift Risk
Fairfax County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Fairfax County carries a Moderate Tax Drift Score (47.7/100) based on $7,600 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +19.5% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.12% (+12 bps) indicates an estimated +$2,042/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $730,000Median Income: $137,000Effective Tax: 1.1%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$7,600
5.5% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+19.5%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+12 bps
Effective Rate: 1.1% → 1.2%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$2,042/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Fairfax County, VA.
$730,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$8,176
@ 1.12% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$10,218
@ 1.24% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$2,042/yr
+$170/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+12 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+5 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+7 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$1,036/yr
+$92,528 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Fairfax County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairfax County Public Schools (FCPS) | ISD | $3.2B | $17,800 | 0.680% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
42
1.1% eff.
2023
44
1.1% eff.
2024
45
1.1% eff.
2025
47
1.1% eff.
2026
47.7
1.1% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
Northern Virginia county funding extensive transit (Silver Line) and FCPS educational facility modernization.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations