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FIPS: 51153•Rank #86 National•Rank #1 in VA
Prince William County, VA
Forward-Looking Municipal Debt, Assessment Lag & Carrying Cost Audit
Elevated Tax Drift Risk
96% Conf.
Tax Drift Index
52.8/ 100
Elevated Drift Risk
Prince William County Executive Risk Briefing
MSRB EMMA Disclosures & US Census BureauAugust 2026
Prince William County carries a Elevated Tax Drift Score (52.8/100) based on $7,400 in overlapping municipal debt per capita and a +21.5% CAD assessment lag spread. Projected 3-year millage escalation of +0.14% (+14 bps) indicates an estimated +$1,584/yr escrow adjustment on median-priced properties.
Median Home: $530,000Median Income: $115,000Effective Tax: 1.0%
Municipal Debt Per Capita
$7,400
6.4% of Median Income
CAD Valuation Lag
+21.5%
Assessed Value trailing Market HPI
3-Yr Millage Escalation
+14 bps
Effective Rate: 1.0% → 1.2%
Projected Annual Escrow Shock
+$1,584/yr
Estimated on median assessed home
Interactive Property Tax & Escrow Shock Simulator
Model forward-looking ad valorem tax obligations and monthly escrow adjustments for a specific parcel in Prince William County, VA.
$530,000
$0
Current Annual Tax
$5,459
@ 1.03% eff. rate
Year 3 Projected Tax
$7,043
@ 1.17% eff. rate
Net Escrow Increase
+$1,584/yr
+$132/mo mortgage escrow
Projected Shock Attribution Breakdown+14 bps rate shift
1. Muni Bond Debt Service
+7 bps
I&S bond amortization
2. Operating Deficit Drift
+7 bps
M&O budget expansion
3. CAD Valuation Catch-up
+$763/yr
+$74,068 assessed base
Overlapping Taxing Jurisdictions & Debt Obligations
Breakdown of autonomous debt issuers assessing ad valorem property taxes on parcels within Prince William County.
| Entity Name | Entity Type | Outstanding Bond Debt | Debt / Student or Cap | Adopted Millage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prince William County Public Schools | ISD | $1.3B | $14,500 | 0.580% |
5-Year Historical Drift Score & Effective Rate Trajectory
2022
46
1.0% eff.
2023
49
1.0% eff.
2024
50
1.0% eff.
2025
52
1.0% eff.
2026
52.8
1.0% eff.
Statutory Constraint & Legislative Policy
High population growth in Manassas corridor drives ongoing school construction and transportation debt.
Data Provenance & Audit Citations